🚦Recession alarmOct 19 data
No recession alarms — all 4 safe
Unemployment 4.2% · yield curve +0.38 pt
Alarms on0 / 4None on watch
Yield curve (10y−2y)+0.38 ptSafe · Normal · inverted 0 days in 2 yrs
Sahm rule0.00Safe · Above 0.5 = recession signal
Unemployment4.2%Safe · +0.1 pt vs 1-yr low
Jobless claims (4-wk avg)199KSafe · +0.1% vs 1-yr low
2026-10-190.38 %p
Unemployment rate 2026-09-014.20 %
Initial jobless claims 2026-10-10199 K
WHY IT MATTERS
- An inverted curve (short > long) has often come about a year before recessions; the un-inversion matters too.
- The Sahm rule triggers when the 3-month unemployment average rises 0.5 pt above its 12-month low — rarely wrong since 1970.
- Lights are warnings, not prophecies. They matter more when several turn on together.
Source · St. Louis Fed (FRED) · US Labor Dept. · Card image
본 자료는 투자 참고용입니다.집계 시점과 출처에 따라 실제 수치와 다를 수 있으며, 특정 종목의 매수·매도를 권유하지 않습니다.투자 판단과 그 책임은 본인에게 있습니다.